Oscar Predictions 2009

Copyright 2009, AMPAS

Well, there are only a few hours left, so I believe it's about the right time to pull my seat up at the table and make my Oscar predictions. Oh, sure, the table I'm sitting it is filled with about a billion other people, throwing their two cents in, but hey, I must get points for being last, right? Either way, take these with a grain of salt, and do expect some wishful thinking and snark in these predix. Enjoy.

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire. Though this is not a category that can be defined as "sure thing," the idea that this movie will not win would be a major surprise, even if it doesn't remotely deserve the award.

Should Win: The Dark Knight. No, wait, that wasn't nominated. OK, WALL-E. Oh, sorry, also not a nominee. Thanks a lot, Academy! Make sure to continue alienating yourself from the people you make movies for as the years continue, folks. Seriously, though, this category has next to no movies I want to see again, so it's hard to make a decision. However, if you forced me, the movie that should win, of these five, on a solely shallow level, is Frost/Nixon. As much as that movie doesn't deserve to win among the best five of the year, it's the best of the five that were nominated.

Best Director

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Stephen Daldry, The Reader

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Gus Van Sant, Milk

Will Win: Danny Boyle. Though I'm not a fan of his film, there's no two ways about it: his flashy techniques coupled with the great cinematography made this movie go a lot quicker than it should have. Its flaws aside, Boyle's style wins out here.

Should Win: Boyle, for the reasons above.

Best Actor

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Will Win: Rourke, I hope. Honestly, it's between Penn and Rourke; any other of the nominees accepting the award tonight would be a huge surprise, on the same level as a surprise in Best Picture. The only one here who doesn't deserve a damn thing is Pitt, who's usually good but quite passive in the epic Button. My hope is that Rourke will win out with voters, though, as he absolutely deserves it most and delivers the best performance of all.

Should Win: Rourke, of course. Penn's great, but Randy "The Ram" is a great character that will last for years. Here's to hoping.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Will Win: Winslet, probably. Her better performance in 2008 wasn't nominated, and there's a possibility that her role as an ex-SS guard shouldn't be considered a lead, but she's long overdue, and politics will probably trump quality.

Should Win: Hathaway, for giving a great performance in a mediocre movie filled with mostly unrealistic people.

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Will Win: Take three guesses, and the first two don't count. If Heath Ledger does not win, well...it was nice knowing the Oscars, but I'd never watch them again. Why waste my time? It's his, or it damn well oughta be.

Should Win: Ledger.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Will Win: This is a toss-up category, truly. All five nominees are worthy and none are frontrunners, so who knows? Davis might win, Adams, or even Henson. My money right now is on Tomei, making another surprise victory; at least this time it'd be deserved.

Should Win: Cruz, actually, in an Anne Hathaway scenario: great role, mediocre movie.

Best Original Screenplay

Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Courtney Hunt, Frozen River

Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky

Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, and Pete Docter, WALL-E

Will Win: I'm sticking fast with this one: WALL-E. It's likely going to be this or Milk, but I have probably misplaced my hopes that the voters won't choose the movie with the issue, just because there's an issue movie. And, anyway, the environment's a damn important issue, too.

Should Win: WALL-E, even if some idiots think that when a movie has little dialogue, it has no worthy script. If you think this about WALL-E, you are a moron.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

David Hare, The Reader

Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Will Win: Beaufoy, no question.

Should Win: Like Picture, this is a hard one, but I'm leaning toward Morgan. Unlike Shanley, he didn't feel the need to literalize every idea in the movie, he kept things well-paced, involving, engaging, and so on. So, Morgan.

Best Animated Feature

Bolt

Kung Fu Panda

WALL-E

Will Win: As with Supporting Actor, let's just cut the crap: WALL-E wins or I walk and so do many film fans. Let's hope these folks aren't influenced by the idiots at the Annie Awards.

Should Win: WALL-E.

I'm going to stop here; the rest are technical awards and the two music awards. My final guess is this: the film with the most awards will be WALL-E, winning all six of its nominated categories. You heard here first. Coming up later today is a review of Fanboys, which is not a great movie, but you should support it anyway, to stick it in Harvey Weinstein's face. Otherwise, enjoy the show tonight, which, based on the scuttlebutt, will either be a great ceremony or on the same level as Rob Lowe and Snow White singing "Proud Mary." See you back here afterwards.