My Oscar Predictions In Full

Copyright, AMPAS

With the Oscar nominations being announced on Thursday, I've already directed you over to Box Office Prophets, where I listed my predictions for most major categories, but I wanted to take an opportunity to go more in-depth about my predictions for all Oscar categories, so read on for more.

Best Picture

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E

Yes, I know I'm not going with the common five here, but I feel like someone has to go a little far outside the norm with their guesses this Oscar season. Though there's no specific frontrunner on the level of 2007's No Country For Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire being the only thing close to a potential winner, the five nominees seem to be set in stone, if you switch out a lovestruck robot for Richard Nixon being grilled by a vain Brit. Sure, Frost/Nixon is a good movie, but I keep hoping that another movie that actually deserves to be a Best Picture nominee (only Batman and WALL-E deserve to be on the list, among the five I've guessed) will get the honor of a nomination.

Best Director

• Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
• Gus Van Sant, Milk

Once again, my guesses are outside the norm, as I don't believe Andrew Stanton, the visionary director and co-writer of WALL-E, will get a richly deserved Best Director nomination. I'd love to be wrong there, but I also think that Aronofsky has a truly brilliant piece of work with The Wrestler, and absolutely deserves the same recognition that Mickey Rourke has been getting. I do think that, of the two mentioned categories, Frost/Nixon is more likely to be shut out of this category. Yes, Ron Howard has won an Oscar, but for his best film, Apollo 13, he was not nominated while his movie was. There is precedent here, so don't be surprised if the narrator of Arrested Development doesn't have a nomination.

Best Actor

• Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
• Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
• Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn, Milk
• Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

There are three definite nominees here: Langella, Penn, and Rourke. These three actors have the larger-than-life performances to back up the praise. In Langella's case, this is a long-overdue nomination for a fine body of work. For Penn, it's business as usual; he's quickly becoming a male Meryl Streep in terms of AMPAS love. For Rourke, it's the ultimate comeback story. 2008 had two of them: his and Robert Downey, Jr., another actor who's likely to show up on the nomination list. Eastwood...well, I hope I'm wrong, but I imagine the elder statesmen of the AMPAS will show his performance in an utterly terrible movie lots of love. My prediction for Jenkins is a guess, and he'll likely be shoved out for Brad Pitt, but Jenkins also has a strong if not large body of work, and his performance in The Visitor hit all the right notes.

Best Actress

• Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
• Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
• Angelina Jolie, Changeling
• Meryl Streep, Doubt
• Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Most of the acting categories are uneasy this year; who knows what, if any, surprises the Academy will bestow upon us? It's likely that this category may have the most surprises. Perhaps Melissa Leo will show up, or Kristin Scott Thomas. I imagine these five, though, will stay the nominees, even if Jolie doesn't deserve it (but, hey, she's famous and beautiful, so why not, says AMPAS). Honestly, the field isn't as strong as it's been in the past, with only Hathaway and Winslet giving the great lead performances of the year. Here, though, I'd only mind if I'm right about Jolie, being praised for a truly mediocre performance in a truly mediocre film.

Best Supporting Actor

• Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
• James Franco, Milk
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
• Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Honestly, let's just have the one nominee. Woe be on the person whose name is called out instead of Ledger's a month from now. Not only does he deserve the award, alive or dead, but the added posthumous nature lends this an air of completeness. There's less surprise here than elsewhere. If Franco doesn't get nominated, it may be in place of Josh Brolin, a worthy alternate candidate for the nomination. It's hard to say why I've chosen one over the other, but I feel like Franco's role works on a slightly more emotional level, one that may work with the Academy. And, although I'd love Michael Shannon to slip in for Revolutionary Road, I imagine Patel will take the fifth slot, undeservedly so. I know I'm one of the few detractors of this film, but even still, it's hard to see why Patel's being praised for a role that gives him so little to do. I can't say if he's a good or bad actor, because the material he's given just does nothing for him. And yet, an Oscar nom is in the cards.

Best Supporting Actress

• Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis, Doubt
• Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married
• Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Kate Winslet, The Reader

Is this the year Kate Winslet wins an award for previous work? Yes, her two major performances this year are Oscar-worthy, but not on the same level as her work in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, easily her best work, and the strongest work from an actress in a long time. She could still end up with an Oscar (I doubt she's winning two, let's be honest), but all of these actresses deserve the award. Unlike other categories, I can't say I don't want any of them to win, and seeing someone like Davis or Dewitt win, when so few recognize them by name or face, would be a great surprise.

Best Original Screenplay

• Happy-Go-Lucky, by Mike Leigh
• Milk, by Dustin Lance Black
• Vicky Cristina Barcelona, by Woody Allen
• WALL-E, by Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
• The Wrestler, by Robert Siegel

There's always a few surprises in the original screenplays, but I get the feeling that all but the first choice I've got is a pretty strong favorite. The only reason Leigh's wound up in my list is that he's been nominated before and, like Allen, may be honored by AMPAS simply because of who he is and his longevity in the world of film. If these are the nominees, I do hope that Stanton and Reardon end up walking down the aisle with a couple of golden boys, as their film is easily one of the most original works in years. Frankly, the only two films I'm rooting for here are WALL-E and The Wrestler.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, by Eric Roth
• The Dark Knight, by Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan
• Doubt, by John Patrick Shanley
• Frost/Nixon, by Peter Morgan
• Slumdog Millionaire, by Simon Beaufoy

As it goes, most Best Picture nominees are in the adapted screenplay category, and this year is likely no different. The only two shaky nominees, I'd wager, are The Dark Knight and Doubt. Still, if the former film is nominated for the big awards, I'd be surprised to see it snubbed here. With the latter, it having been a play first helps, and Shanley's no stranger to the Oscars. Still, Doubt has been the film hovering around Oscar this entire season, and may end up either on the good or bad side of the edge.

Best Animated Feature

• Kung Fu Panda
• WALL-E
• Waltz With Bashir

If it wasn't for Waltz With Bashir being nominated for Best Foreign-Language Film, I'd say it has a more-than-fighting chance against the obvious victor, WALL-E. But it will be, it doesn't, and WALL-E will win.

I'd go further on the nominations, but I'd prefer to wait on technical categories until the announcements, so I can predict who I'd like to win and who I think will win. Until then, prepare yourselves for a likely boring nominations ceremony and hope that, for the sake of intrigue, I'm closer to right than wrong.